survive the innings
batting survival analysis. every ball is a coin flip that hates you.
pick your batsman.
0ball
0runs
-your guess
true survival curve S(b)
kaplan-meier estimate (your innings)
hazard h(b), right axis
your guess
dismissals
median survival
24
the first six balls are the most dangerous of your life. survive them and the game changes. this is kaplan-meier estimation, the same math hospitals use.