economy roulette

tactical shooter economy as a markov chain. buy smart or lose slow.

you
800
 
0-0
round 1 / 12
enemy
800
 
your win prob by round
the model

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  • credits. integers, 0 to 9,000. both sides start the half with 800.
  • buys. full buy 3,900 · force buy 2,000 · eco 0. only what you can afford is enabled. spend = min(cost, credits).
  • round win probability. p = 1 / (1 + e^(-(yourSpend - enemySpend) / 1400)). mirror buys: 50%. a force into a full buy: about 20%. a full eco into a full buy: about 6%.
  • income. a round win pays 3,000. losses pay by streak: 1,900 for the first, 2,400 for the second, 2,900 from the third on. the streak resets when you win.
  • pistol. round 1 is fixed: both sides dump their 800. a coin flip.
  • enemy policy. full buy at 3,900+. force at 2,000+ if it just lost pistol or sits on a 2+ loss streak. otherwise eco. its economy follows the same income rules as yours.
  • the half. 12 rounds. 7 round wins takes it.
  • the optimal policy. backward induction over round × your credits × enemy credits × both loss streaks, credits bucketed to 500s. about 39,000 states, up to 3 actions each, maximizing expected round wins with the enemy locked to its policy. solved when this page loads, then used to grade you at the end.